Category

Month in Review

VFS Group Month in Review – June

By | ASX, Investing, Macro, Month in Review

On the 31st May the ASX 200 Index closed at 5724 points.
On the 30th June the ASX 200 Index closed at 5721 points.
A whole month with no outcome was a welcome relief following the 3.3% hammering the market took the month previous. Before too many eyes turn to the seasonally strong month of July (up 4.4% & 6.3% in ’15 & ’16) it might be worth having a look at some of the better hits of a “June Swoon” we’ll soon forget.

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Month in Review – March 2017

By | Month in Review

Ah, March for the Australian investor. What a beautiful time to be in the markets. Just close enough to the New Year for the Christmas rally to be a fond memory and just far enough away from the “Sell In May & Go Away” crowd to start getting on their soapbox.

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On Badly Timed Sales and Seasonal Moves

By | ASX, Macro, Month in Review

To tee off there’s been some serious rumblings regarding Harvey Norman this week. We all would have read about it and/or heard about the recent batch of bad news. Anyone who doesn’t know my thoughts on Harvey’s I ask you to please read my last seven months of work on the space. Harvey Norman is a dead man walking even without the alleged accounting scandal & ASIC investigation hanging over their head.
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Month in Review – February 2017

By | Month in Review

Another month flies past and we barely have time to think about what’s ahead. February was obviously dominated by Trump and Reporting season. As much as company reporting takes focus away from global events no one could look away as the lead up to and delivery of Trump’s address to Congress. From the start of February to the end, the chances of the Fed raising rates has moved from “maybe” to “definitely” which makes our US banks trade all the more valuable. As at the start of March the chance of the Fed rate rise next week is 80%. Already at the time of writing it is much higher. See chart below, courtesy Bloomberg.

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Month in Review – November 2016

By | Month in Review

It would be remiss of us not to start this month’s Review with what was far and away the biggest event of the year, that being the election of Donald J. Trump. Four weeks ago he was given no chance of winning the Presidency with some market commentators predicting disaster to markets in the rare likelihood of his election. Today he is the President-elect with a wide range of business friendly policies ready to roll out when possible. The market reacted negatively upon seeing the first signs of Trump’s miraculous win.

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Month in Review – August 2016

By | Economics, Investing, Month in Review

Market Wrap

August provided investors with a seriously bumpy experience – except the index hardly moved all month. It was reporting season and there were tears, cheers and fears.

Let’s start with the tears: APN Outdoor (APO) has been a market darling and it seemed that it was always trading on a new high. Investors liked what they saw and if you owned the stock you were in profit, and then it reported!! In what was the biggest fall from grace the stock fell over 25% and sent investors running and it hasn’t recovered. Unfortunately for APN Outdoor investors, the stock was not positioned to disappoint given its share price had surged in recent times. But the bigger blow came with its 2016 outlook: revenue growth of 6%-8% and EBITDA of A$79M-A$84M. That was down from previous revenue guidance of 8%-11% growth and EBITDA of A$84M-A$88M.

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