The Fed will hike in December. I don’t know a sensible person who isn’t now of that view. We were given a warning early last month of what would happen if they were hiked out of the blue and now, a month and a half later, we are now adequately conditioned for what is now a world at the bottom of the rate cycle. This being said, I’ll dust off some old notes (from September 20th) that are now the serious game plan for the rest of the year.
Firstly, and as an apology, this note will be a prelude to something more substantial regarding what a Trump victory means for the USA and the planet. Whilst it’s not world ending, the world’s eyes are currently upon a very small handful of people and so we must assess its relevance and impact. For the dismissive amongst you I ask that you please remember the Brexit vote which impacted our markets severely on Friday 24th June. Whilst I predicted a vote for status quo by the British public, I never discounted the possibility that there is an ever growing disconnect between how people say they will vote and how they actually vote. I’m happy to engage anyone on the reasons behind the recent rise of this phenomenon, here is a link to the Wikipedia site regarding the ‘Bradley Effect’.