Category

Economics

October 5, 2016
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On Re-Brexit, China & Australia Bubbles & Busy Airports

By | BREXIT, Economics, Investing, Politics

If you haven’t already, please check out our latest contribution to Business Insider’s ‘Devils & Details,’ the most popular business podcast in Australia. We cover OPEC, the RBA & the ongoing commodities rally. At the end I also tip the Swans and the Storm so I’m due a few wins this week I’d say.

https://t.co/jpwiRWJJZV

There’s been plenty going on this week that’s caught my attention. Unfortunately just the facts today for some obvious reasons.

Firstly, and I think most importantly, this appeared on my timeline over the long weekend…

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September 20, 2016
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On fake moon landings, bad tech & the new game plan

By | ASX, Economics, Investing, Moon Landing, Telstra

Last week a colleague and I took a tour of regional NSW (Orange specifically) to discuss portfolio strategies and China. VFS Head of Strategy and resident China expert Jack Kouzi gave a great talk on Chinese growth being more substantial than just GDP growth and iron ore exports, that their ambitions in other fields are a good indication of their overall intentions. One of the points Jack made was that China wants to put a man on the moon by 2025. That’s all good and well for them but it was on the long drive home that my brain started turning this over.

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September 13, 2016
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On Existential Crises, Rate Rise Fallout and Wiggle-Room

By | Economics, Investing

The art of good commentary is to be able to make grand statements sound conclusive whilst leaving plenty of wiggle room. Fan favourites include “markets were mixed today,” “this stock will almost certainly keep going up until it commences its pullback. Note this pullback may have already begun” and “it’s a stock picker’s market. You have to be savvy and switched on. The next week will be crucial…”

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September 4, 2016
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Month in Review – August 2016

By | Economics, Investing, Month in Review

Market Wrap

August provided investors with a seriously bumpy experience – except the index hardly moved all month. It was reporting season and there were tears, cheers and fears.

Let’s start with the tears: APN Outdoor (APO) has been a market darling and it seemed that it was always trading on a new high. Investors liked what they saw and if you owned the stock you were in profit, and then it reported!! In what was the biggest fall from grace the stock fell over 25% and sent investors running and it hasn’t recovered. Unfortunately for APN Outdoor investors, the stock was not positioned to disappoint given its share price had surged in recent times. But the bigger blow came with its 2016 outlook: revenue growth of 6%-8% and EBITDA of A$79M-A$84M. That was down from previous revenue guidance of 8%-11% growth and EBITDA of A$84M-A$88M.

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August 8, 2016
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On my Olympic Contention, Turnbull vs the Banks & Skimpies

By | Economics, Investing

I was reminiscing over the weekend about one of my “Coodabeen” moments when I was almost an Olympic Athlete (almost).

When I was about 16 my father took me to a shooting range to complete my firearms license (a requirement for the son of a cattle farmer). While there I was introduced to one of my lifetime loves clay target shooting. I’d obviously not tried it before and my father wanted to see if I’d like the sport. We paid for 25 ‘clays’ and I took my position with a borrowed shotgun. Hesitant at first I could barely mumble “pull” to the man pulling the trap but soon the nervousness was replaced by exhilaration as the first target exploded in a cloud of clay dust. Then the second, the third. Soon I was yelling “PULL” at the top of my lungs and breaking the target straight out of the trap house. On and on this went until I realised I’d been going for some time without missing a single target.

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July 28, 2016
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The War on Banks

By | Economics, Investing, Video

London­ based Hedge Fund Portfolio Manager David Pain has spent the last six months in Australia looking for value down under. He has collaborated with VFS Group Investment Manager James Whelan and he provides his assessment of the big end of the Australian Banking system.

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July 25, 2016
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On Enterprise, Filling Houses, Bond Proxies and Tourism

By | Economics, Investing

There is a certain barometer I use to check the sentiment of the Australian market and that is the feel at Ryan’s Bar in Australia Square, Sydney.

That overpriced, noisy, filthy outdoor bar has been a Sydney Broking Institution since well before my time but is always a great way to tell if the mood is happy or sad. Pre-GFC, the place was always buzzing with big money and big stories, some new uranium stock thought they may be digging in 5 years and the price shot up 60%. Brilliant. Cheers.

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